About the forecast:
The researchers claimed that though it will vary from state to state, the present Covid curve will be flattened by March-April. The forecast also stated that the peak might see over 8 lakh daily cases in India. The latest projections take into account the rising Covid graph of India till January 10 and Omicron transmissibility rates in South Africa.
Scenarios given by researchers:
Further, the researchers have provided three scenarios, 100% susceptible population, 60% susceptible population and 30% susceptible population. In all three scenarios, the curve will be flattened by April. In the case of 30% and 60% susceptibility, the surge will decline in February, in the case of 100% susceptibility, it will take some more time, the graph shows.
India’s estimated hospital requirement can go beyond 4 lakh per day in the worst-case scenario i.e. if 100% population is susceptible to the virus now.
Considering 60% population susceptible, the hospital requirement can go a little above 3 lakh per day.
The requirement of ICU beds can go beyond 20,000 in the worst-case scenario. Otherwise, it will remain between 10,000 to 15,000.
The wave will begin to decline in February and by March 1, the curve will start to flatten. In April 2022, the third wave will end in India. However, the exact timing will be different for different states
Giving statewise predictions, the model shows that Delhi at present is reporting over 20,000 cases. If Delhi has a 60% susceptible population, then daily cases will rise to over 40,000. In case of 100% susceptibility, daily cases may rise above 60,000.
Puducherry, Lakshadweep, Punjab will see a delayed surge, the projection shows, which means when cases in other states begin to decline, these states and UTs may see the surge.
Maharashtra in the worst-case scenario will report over 1.75 lakh cases per day. In a60% susceptible situation, the state will report over 1 lakh cases per day at the peak.