According to a new study released Thursday, various countries on Earth could suffer abnormally hot years every other year by 2030, underscoring the outsized effect of emissions from the world’s largest polluters.
To make regional warming forecasts by 2030, the modelling study included data on historical emissions and pledges made before the COP26 climate summit for reduction from the top five polluters — China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Russia.
To make regional warming forecasts by 2030, the modelling study included data on historical emissions and pledges made before the COP26 climate summit for reduction from the top five polluters — China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Russia.
Hot annual temperatures every alternate year
The researchers discovered that every two years, 92 percent of the 165 countries surveyed will suffer exceptionally hot annual temperatures, defined as a once-in-a-hundred-year hot year in the pre-industrial era.
Climate Analytics’ Alexander Nauels, who co-authored the study published in Communications Earth and Environment, described it as “quite stunning.”
“It just illustrates the urgency and how we’re moving towards a world that’s simply so much hotter for everyone,” he told the AFP news agency.
To determine the magnitude of the contribution of the world’s five largest emitters to this prediction, the authors looked at what the world would look like if they didn’t emit since 1991, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its first warning to governments about human-caused climate change.
They discovered that the number of countries hit by high heat years would decrease to roughly 46%.
Distinct impression by the top emitters
The study discovered “a distinct impression” of top emitters’ actions on the regional scale, according to lead author Lea Beusch of ETH Zurich’s Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science.
“I think this is incredibly important,” she added, “since we generally talk about these abstract quantities of emissions or global temperatures, which we know about but can’t feel.”
Tropical Africa had the greatest impact on the frequency of exceptionally hot years, according to the researchers.
The authors emphasised that the frequency of exceptional years could be altered if countries considerably increased their efforts to reduce pollution.
According to the UNFCCC, current plans would see emissions rise 13.7 percent by 2030, when they must drop by almost half to meet the Paris Agreement temperature target of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
(This story was not edited by The North Eastern Chronicle staff and is published from a syndicated feed)
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