After weeks of parched fields and an alarming monsoon shortfall, rainfall has finally begun to pick up in parts of Assam. But for lakhs of farmers who rely on the monsoon to cultivate kharif paddy, the most crucial crop of the year, the relief may have come just in time — or, for some, a little too late.
Rainfall Deficit Triggers Drought-Like Conditions in Assam
With nearly half the state witnessing drought-like conditions throughout July, farmers are now racing against the clock to transplant their rice seedlings, hoping to salvage what they can of this year’s monsoon crop.
Large-Scale Rainfall Deficit Across Districts
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), as of July 21, 16 out of Assam’s 33 officially counted districts have recorded a “large deficient” status, indicating rainfall levels 66% to 90% below normal for this time of year. (Though Assam has 35 districts in total, the IMD currently does not include Bajali and Tamulpur, which are also among the rain-deficient regions.)
The result of this prolonged dry spell has been devastating: cracked and hardened soil, dried-up water sources, and widespread delays in transplantation — a critical stage in the paddy cultivation cycle.
“These are not just dry fields — in many places, the soil has cracked, making it impossible to prepare the land for transplantation. The rain-fed nature of agriculture in Assam makes the situation all the more severe,” said a senior official from the state agriculture department.
Major Setback in Paddy Cultivation
Assam’s kharif paddy, which is sown during the monsoon and harvested in winter, accounts for about 81% of the state’s annual rice output. The transplantation of rice seedlings — which are first grown in seedbeds and then moved to main fields after about a month — typically concludes by mid-July under normal monsoon conditions.
However, due to the rain deficit, a substantial delay has occurred. As per the agriculture department’s latest data, out of the 7.52 lakh hectares earmarked for kharif paddy cultivation across 14 of the most affected districts, 3.28 lakh hectares have yet to be cultivated. In another 1.36 lakh hectares, transplantation has taken place but the seedlings have withered due to the dry soil.
This has directly impacted an estimated 2.7 lakh farming families across 4,071 revenue villages.
“There is a narrow window of about 10 to 15 days left for farmers to transplant the popular rice varieties of this season,” the official added. “If they miss this, productivity will suffer, and the harvest will likely yield much less than expected.”
The Moisture Challenge
The transplantation process relies heavily on soil moisture and puddling, which requires the fields to be soaked in a few inches of water. Without this, seedlings cannot take root and often perish.
“Once transplanted, the seedlings need a steady supply of moisture for at least the first 7-10 days. That’s why timely rainfall is so crucial,” explained the official.
The limited irrigation coverage in Assam — with only 12% of cultivable land under formal irrigation facilities — has exacerbated the crisis. In most areas, farmers are almost entirely dependent on rainfall.
State Government Declares ‘State-Specific Disaster’
Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the Assam Cabinet in a recent meeting declared the drought-like conditions as a “state-specific disaster.” It also gave in-principle approval for compensating affected farmers under the State Disaster Response Fund (SDRF).
As per SDRF norms, compensation will be extended at the rate of:
- ₹17,000 per hectare for irrigated land
- ₹8,500 per hectare for rain-fed cultivation
“However, the compensation will be released only after a joint loss assessment in August–September by officials from the agriculture, revenue, and statistics departments,” said a second agriculture official.
Emergency Measures Underway
In the meantime, the state government has initiated a series of urgent interventions. Among them is the establishment of community nurseries across all districts to help farmers replace destroyed seedlings. Officials also revealed that a drought advisory is in the works — an unprecedented step for Assam, which has rarely faced prolonged dry spells of this magnitude in recent years.
While Golaghat district experienced similar conditions in 2021, the current crisis is far more widespread and poses greater risks to food security and rural livelihoods.
“We are entering new territory. This is not a situation we’ve had to manage at this scale before,” said the official.
Climatic Shifts Worsening Vulnerability
According to Rajib Lochan Das, Professor of Agricultural Meteorology at Assam Agricultural University, climate change has significantly altered the state’s monsoon patterns, making agriculture more vulnerable.
“Paddy cultivation in Assam during the kharif season is heavily dependent on the southwest monsoon, and with only a fraction of land irrigated, erratic weather makes us extremely vulnerable,” he said.
Das added that in recent years, the monsoon has become highly unpredictable, marked by:
- More intense but infrequent rainfall events
- Fewer rainy days overall
- A sharp decline in moderate rainfall
- Longer dry spells between rains
- Increased early-season floods before monsoon onset
“These erratic patterns make it harder for farmers to plan their crops or ensure seedling survival,” he said.
The Way Forward
Experts and farmer groups are now calling for urgent investment in irrigation infrastructure, rainwater harvesting, and the promotion of climate-resilient crop varieties to buffer against future weather shocks.
“There’s no question that Assam’s traditional agricultural systems must now evolve. Climate adaptation has to become part of the core policy,” said Das.
As the rains slowly return, hope is also trickling back into the fields. But for thousands of farming families across Assam, the coming two weeks will be decisive — determining not just this season’s harvest, but also their economic survival.
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